Focus on Transition

Editorial 
Recent Economic Developments
Developments in Selected Countries 
Franz Schardax

Studies
Increasing Integration of Applicant Countries into International Financial Markets: Implications for Monetary and Financial Stability 
Jarko Fidrmuc and Franz Schardax
In recent years advanced transition countries have experienced growing capital flows as a consequence of increasing financial integration. This study analyzes the impact of capital flows on inflation by means of Granger causality tests and a VAR model for Hungary. The authors find some impact on the inflation rate despite large-scale sterilization measures. Judged by several financial indicators, the financial systems of advanced transition countries seem to have coped well with increasing capital flows. 

Exchange Rate Regimes in Central and Eastern Europe: A Brief Review of Recent Changes, Current Issues and Future Challenges  
Peter Backe
The purpose of this review is to present recent changes, current issues and future challenges for exchange rate regimes and exchange rate policies in the Central and Eastern European EU applicant countries. The evolution and the performance of exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe are discussed against the backdrop of the emerging market crises in the years 1997 to 1999. This is complemented by a survey of economic and institutional issues this group of countries faces or will be confronted with as transition advances and as integration into the European Union comes closer. 

Special Reports
Ukraine: Macroeconomic Development and Economic Policy in the First Eight Years of Independence 
Stephan Barisitz
After Russia, Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe and is well endowed with natural resources. On the other hand, Ukraine is certainly among those Eastern European countries that have gone through the greatest economic difficulties and hardship since the onset of transition. Recurring political conflicts have time and again contributed to blocking reforms. This article tries to trace developments of the Ukrainian economy and economic policy since the collapse of the USSR. Three periods are discerned: the period of modest reform endeavors 1992 to 1994, the period of stopand- go policies from 1994 to 1998 and the period following the Russian crisis of August 1998.

OeNB Activities
East West Conference
Financial Crisis: A Never-Ending Story? 
Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald
Lectures organized by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank 
EMU, Accession and the Catching-Up Process – Emil Ems 
Hungary’s Preparations for Membership in the EU:
A Preliminary Assessment – Andras Inotai 
What to Look for in the Russian Elections – Richard Rose 
Current Economic and Financial Developments in Bulgaria – Zdravko Balyozov 
The EBRD’s Transition Report – Martin Raiser 
Financial Integration of Transition Economies into the Global Economy:
Where Do We Stand 10 Years After? – Mojmir Mrak 
The "East Jour Fixe" of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank – A Forum for Discussion 
The Current State of Accession Negotiations – Specific Focus:
EMU and the Free Movement of Capital – Leopold Maurer 
The European Commission’s Economic Evaluation in the 1999 Regular Reports
on the Enlargement Countries – Alexandra Cas Granje 
Technical Cooperation of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank
with Countries in Transition 

Statistical Annex
Compiled by Andreas Nader
Gross Domestic Product 
Industrial Production 
Unemployment Rate 
Consumer Price Index 
Trade Balance 
Current Account 
Total Reserves Minus Gold 
Central Government Deficit 
Gross Debt in Convertible Currencies 
Exchange Rates 
Discount Rates