Working Papers

Working Paper 45
Is there an asymmetric effect on monetary policy over time?
A bayesian analysis using austrian data

Sylvia Kaufmann

May 18, 2001

 

The opinions are strictly those of the authors and in no way commit the OeNB.


Editorial

In this paper Sylvia Kaufmann investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects over the business cycle. For this she estimates a univariate model for GDP that additionally includes the first difference of the 3-month Austrian interest rate as a measure for monetary policy. The asymmetry of the effects is captured by allowing for state-dependent parameters where the latent state variable follows a Markov switching process. The model itself is estimated within a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. The results document significant negative effects of monetary policy during periods of below-average growth, while the effects seem insignificant during periods of normal or above-average growth, thereby lending support to theoretical models with price rigidities that imply a convex supply curve.


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    Is there an asymmetric effect on monetary policy over time? A bayesian analysis using austrian data Sylvia Kaufmann

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