Working Papers

Working Paper 80
Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack?
Evidence from the EMS

Helmut Stix

November 4, 2002

 

The opinions are strictly those of the authors and in no way commit the OeNB.


Editorial

In this paper, Helmut Stix studies the effects of central bank intervention during the 1992-1993 EMS crises on the D-mark/peseta and D-mark/French franc exchange rate. In particular, it is analyzed how interventions affected the probability of a speculative attack and market participants’ expectations about realignments. The findings provide evidence that interventions seem to have increased both the expected realignment rate and the probability of a speculative attack. Furthermore, there is some evidence that this effect arises for publicly known but not for secret interventions.

 



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    Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS Helmut Stix

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