Working Papers

Working Paper 90
Modeling Credit Aggregates

Sylvia Kaufmann, Maria Teresa Valderrama

September 20, 2004

 

The opinions are strictly those of the authors and in no way commit the OeNB.


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In this paper, the authors model loans to households and to non-financial corporations as well as their relation to interest rates and demand variables for Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Credit aggregates are modeled using a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model, which allows testing as to whether shocks to the economy have stronger effects during tight credit regimes or economic downturns. The analysis of the abovementioned countries makes it possible to assess the differences in the amplifying and asymmetric effects of credit aggregates between market-based and bankbased financial systems.



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