CESEE outlook

Outlook

The OeNB and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) compile semiannual forecasts of economic developments in selected CESEE countries. They are based on a broad range of available information, including country-specific time series models for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The projections for Russia were prepared by the BOFIT and are based on an SVAR model.
 

OeNB-BOFIT outlook for selected CESEE countries

CESEE-6 economic growth loses speed but remains robust, Russia returns to lower economic growth

Following solid GDP growth of above 4% in 2018, economic expansion in the CESEE-6 countries is predicted to slow down to 3.6% in 2019 and further to 3.3% in 2020 and 3.1% in 2021. Hungary and Poland will be the growth leaders over the projection horizon but – as in all other CESEE-6 countries – economic growth will lose steam toward the end of the forecast period. Generally, domestic demand will become weaker (but remain robust), which is strongly linked to bottlenecks in the labor market and a lower inflow of EU funds in some cases. In 2019 and 2020, export growth will gain speed compared to 2018, in line with our assumptions on euro area import growth, while CESEE-6 import growth will stay more or less unchanged. The growth differential vis-à-vis the euro area is expected to amount to 2.5 percentage points in 2019 (the same as in 2018) and to moderate to 1.6 percentage points by 2021. Current risks to economic growth are tilted downward and remain elevated.

Outlook for selected CESEE countries (PDF, 0.2 MB)
Cut-off date for data: March 25, 2019