Economic review and outlook
Recent Economic Developments in selected CESEE countries
Explore the latest updates on developments in selected CESEE economies, as published in the OeNB’s "Focus on European Economic Integration".
Read on to check out our GDP flash estimates for eight CESEE economies. These model-based estimates, which draw on selected leading indicators, are reviewed at monthly intervals.
OeNB CESEE-Nowcast from July 2019:
The OeNB Nowcast for CESEE-8 (Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) stands at 0.8% (quarter on quarter) for the second quarter of 2019. This would imply a notable moderation of GDP growth compared to the first quarter of 2019. Lower growth figures are expected for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland after extraordinary strong dynamics in early 2019.
The current OeNB Nowcast was moderately revised downward compared to the last estimation in June 2019. On the country level, somewhat lower dynamics are now expected for Croatia, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia. At the same time, expectations for GDP growth in Hungary improved moderately.
The OeNB and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) compile semiannual forecasts of economic developments in selected CESEE countries. They are based on a broad range of available information, including country-specific time series models for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The projections for Russia were prepared by the BOFIT and are based on an SVAR model. The forecasts are published in Q2 and Q4 of "Focus on European Economic Integration".