Economic review and outlook
Recent Economic Developments in selected CESEE countries
Explore the latest updates on developments in selected CESEE economies, as published in the OeNB’s "Focus on European Economic Integration".
Read on to check out our GDP flash estimates for eight CESEE economies. These model-based estimates, which draw on selected leading indicators, are reviewed at monthly intervals.
OeNB CESEE-Nowcast from February 2020:
The OeNB Nowcast for CESEE-8 (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia,) stands at 1.0% (quarter on quarter) for the first quarter of 2020. This would imply a reacceleration of GDP growth compared to the final quarter of 2019.
On the country level, regional dynamics are driven by Poland in particular. The OeNB nowcasting model expects a notable rebound of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the region’s largest economy. The projected strengthening is consistent with the most recent forecast of the European Commission (+0,9% quarter on quarter).
Compared to the previous nowcasting exercise (January 2020), the current Nowcast (February 2020) (based on data for January 2020) increased by 0.1 percentage points. The nowcast was revised upward especially for Poland (in line with an increase in the Euro Coin in January), while changes for the other countries were only marginal.
The OeNB and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) compile semiannual forecasts of economic developments in selected CESEE countries. They are based on a broad range of available information, including country-specific time series models for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The projections for Russia were prepared by the BOFIT and are based on an SVAR model. The forecasts are published in Q2 and Q4 of "Focus on European Economic Integration".