Economic review and outlook

Recent Economic Developments in selected CESEE countries

Explore the latest updates on developments in selected CESEE economies, as published in the OeNB’s "Focus on European Economic Integration".

Developments in selected CESEE countries (PDF, 2.1 MB)
Focus on European Economic Integration Q2/20


CESEE nowcasting

Read on to check out our GDP flash estimates for eight CESEE economies. These model-based estimates, which draw on selected leading indicators, are reviewed at monthly intervals.

OeNB CESEE-Nowcast from April 2020:


The OeNB Nowcast for CESEE-8 (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia,) stands at 0.4% (quarter on quarter) for the first quarter of 2020. This would imply a deceleration of GDP growth by 0.3 Pp compared to the final quarter of 2019.
Unlike previous nowcasts, this one includes only a selection of short-term indicators that capture the effects originating from the Covid-19 outbreak, i.e. the European Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI; only available for CZ and PL – the other country models include the PMI of the Euro Area) from March 2020. Both indicators exhibit a significant drop compared to February (except in Slovakia). The PMI stands at values last observed in 2009. These developments are reflected in the recent Nowcast, which compared to the previous nowcasting exercise (March 2020) decreased by 0.5 percentage points.
As the Covid-19 pandemic has not started to spread in Europe before mid-February 2020, its negative economic impact will only be partly reflected in GDP growth figures of Q1/2020.

 

CESEE outlook

The OeNB and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) compile semiannual forecasts of economic developments in selected CESEE countries. They are based on a broad range of available information, including country-specific time series models for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The projections for Russia are prepared by the BOFIT and are based on an SVAR model. The forecasts are published in Q2 and Q4 of "Focus on European Economic Integration."

Outlook for selected CESEE countries (PDF, 0.4 MB)
Focus on European Economic Integration Q2/20