Economic review and outlook
Recent Economic Developments in selected CESEE countries
Explore the latest updates on developments in selected CESEE economies, as published in the OeNB’s "Focus on European Economic Integration".
Read on to check out our GDP flash estimates for eight CESEE economies. These model-based estimates, which draw on selected leading indicators, are reviewed at monthly intervals.
OeNB CESEE-Nowcast from November 2019:
The OeNB Nowcast for CESEE-8 (Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) stands at 0.6% (quarter on quarter) for the fourth quarter of 2019. This would imply a moderation of GDP growth compared to the unexpectedly strong third quarter of 2019.
For the third quarter of 2019, the OeNB Nowcast of October 2019 estimated a growth rate of 0.3% (quarter on quarter). Growth, however, turned out to be notably stronger than this estimation (flash releases suggest an average regional growth rate of around 0.9%). The previous Nowcast underestimated growth especially in Hungary and Poland, the fourth biggest and the biggest economy of the region. Growth was markedly overestimated in Romania.
Due to the lack of detailed data, the reasons for the unexpectedly strong dynamics in Hungary and Poland are not fully clear. However, both countries should have benefited from strong private consumption growth against the backdrop of rising wages, strong consumer sentiment, higher transfers and swift credit expansion. Furthermore, industrial production growth in both countries outpaced the regional average by a large margin. Production in the construction sector grew strongly especially in Hungary.
The OeNB and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) compile semiannual forecasts of economic developments in selected CESEE countries. They are based on a broad range of available information, including country-specific time series models for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The projections for Russia were prepared by the BOFIT and are based on an SVAR model. The forecasts are published in Q2 and Q4 of "Focus on European Economic Integration".