Economic review and outlook

Recent Economic Developments in selected CESEE countries

Explore the latest updates on developments in selected CESEE economies, as published in the OeNB’s "Focus on European Economic Integration".

Download: Recent economic developments (PDF, 1,4 MB)
 

CESEE nowcasting

Read on to check out our GDP flash estimates for eight CESEE economies. These model-based estimates, which draw on selected leading indicators, are reviewed at monthly intervals.

OeNB CESEE-Nowcast from May 2019:

CESEE nowcasting

The OeNB Nowcast for CESEE-8 (Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia) stands at 0.9% (quarter on quarter) for the second quarter of 2019. This would imply some moderation of GDP growth compared to the first quarter of 2019. Lower growth figures are expected especially for Poland and Hungary after extraordinary strong dynamics in early 2019.

For the first quarter of 2019, the OeNB Nowcast of April 2019 estimated a growth rate of 1.1% (quarter on quarter) and adequately tracked economic activity in CESEE-8. According to flash estimates, growth amounted to exactly 1.1%, but may turn out somewhat stronger after the release of GDP data for Croatia and Slovenia in the coming weeks. Across individual countries, a larger nowcasting error was only observed in the case of Hungary, where growth turned out substantially stronger than expected.

CESEE outlook

The OeNB and the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) compile semiannual forecasts of economic developments in selected CESEE countries. They are based on a broad range of available information, including country-specific time series models for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. The projections for Russia were prepared by the BOFIT and are based on an SVAR model. The forecasts are published in Q2 and Q4 of "Focus on European Economic Integration".

Download of the recent forecast (PDF, 0.3 MB)