Forecast of key economic indicators - austrian forecasters

Forecast of key economic indicators - austrian forecasters

OeNB

WIFO

WIFO

IHS

December 2020

March 2021

March 2021

Opening scenario

Lockdown scenario

2021

2022

2023

2021

2022

2021

2022

2021

2022

Key results

Annual change in %

Real GDP

3.6

4.0

2.2

2.3

4.3

1.5

4.7

2.6

4.3

Real private consumption

3.9

4.7

2.0

2.4

4.0

1.1

4.6

4.4

4.4

Real government consumption

1.2

0.8

0.9

1.4

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.5

0.5

Real gross fixed capital formation

4.0

4.7

2.7

4.0

4.0

3.5

4.4

2.7

4.9

Real exports

5.4

5.5

3.7

2.8

7.2

2.3

7.8

6.8

7.2

Real imports

4.1

5.8

3.8

3.9

6.0

3.5

6.5

8.4

6.6

Labour productivity¹

2.7

2.1

0.7

-1.8

0.9

-1.7

0.7

1.3

2.7

GDP deflator

0.2

1.5

1.7

1.2

1.7

1.2

1.7

1.5

1.7

CPI

x

x

x

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

HICP

1.4

1.7

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.1

1.9

Unit labor costs

-0.7

0.2

1.9

-0.8

-1.0

-0.3

-1.6

-0.3

-1.2

Payroll employment²

0.9

1.9

1.5

1.1

2.2

0,9

2.3

1.3

1.5

in % of labour force, Eurostat definition

Unemployment rate

5.6

5.1

4.8

5.0

4.8

5.1

4.8

5.3

5.0

% of nominal GDP

Current account

2.4

2.3

2.4

1.4

2.1

1.3

2.1

x

x

General government
surplus/deficit

-6.3

-2.9

-1.4

-7.1

-3.7

-7.7

-4.0

-6.6

-3.5

Conditioning assumptions

Oil price in USD/barrel

44.0

45.7

46.9

63.0

59.0

63.0

59.0

65.0

65.0

Short-term interest rate in %

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

USD/EUR

1.18

1.18

1.18

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

language:

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last update on 26.03.2021 10:31