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| OECD
June 2020 | IMF
April 2020 | European Commission
May/July 2020 |
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| single-hit scenario | double-hit scenario | forecast | forecast | |||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | |||
| Key Results
| ||||||||||
| Annual change in % | ||||||||||
| Real GDP1 | -6.2 | 4.0 | -7.5 | 3.2 | -7.0 | 4.5 | -7.1 | 5.6 | ||
| Real private consumption | -6.1 | 4.4 | -7.4 | 3.7 | x | x | -4.8 | 4.9 | ||
| Real government consumption | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | x | x | 3.0 | 0.1 | ||
| Real gross fixed capital formation | -7.0 | 5.8 | -8.0 | 3.8 | x | x | -9.5 | 6.9 | ||
| Real exports | -8.7 | 9.4 | -11.9 | 9.7 | x | x | -12.5 | 10.3 | ||
| Real imports | -9.0 | 9.9 | -11.5 | 10.2 | x | x | -10.8 | 9.0 | ||
| Labour productivity | x | x | x | x | x | x | -4.2 | 3.6 | ||
| GDP deflator | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | x | x | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||
| HICP1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | ||
| Unit labor costs | x | x | x | x | x | x | 5.1 | -2.3 | ||
| Payroll employment | x | x | x | x | x | x | -1.4 | 1.4 | ||
| % of labour force | ||||||||||
| Unemployment rate | 5.8 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | ||
| % of nominal GDP | ||||||||||
| Current account | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | ||
| General government surplus/deficit | -7.3 | -3.2 | -9.8 | -5.5 | -7.1 | -1.6 | -6.1 | -1.9 | ||
| Conditioning assumptions | ||||||||||
| Oil price in USD/barrel1 | 30.0 | 33.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 35.6 | 37.9 | 42.0 | 43.0 | ||
| Short-term interest rate in % | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.4 | ||
| USD/EUR | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 1.09 | ||
| Source: OECD, IMF, European Commission. | ||||||||||
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| last update on 03.08.2020 15:46 |
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