Richard Sellner

We analyse the impact of shocks in perceived geopolitical risk on Austrian inflation. To do this, we construct a geopolitical risk perception index based on newspaper coverage in Austria. The Austrian index shows strong co-movement with similar indices for Germany, the euro area and the USA, but ...

This paper provides empirical estimates on the impact of a 50% rise in energy prices (relative to 2019) on Austrian GDP. We find that in such a scenario, Austrian GDP could decrease by up to 0.9% in the short run. Should energy prices stay higher permanently, additional output losses could occur ...

In this study, we analyze the economic effects of US tariff increases on EU industries during President Trump’s second term. We simulate three different scenarios of escalating tariffs and find that EU GDP could decline by up to 0.5 % in the medium term. Our simulations show a wide range ...