Karin Klieber

We study how monetary policy affects firm-level total factor productivity in the presence of financial frictions using a panel of Austrian non-financial firms. A dynamic firm model and causal empirical framework show that tighter monetary policy reduces productivity-enhancing investment and ...

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about renewed inflationary pressures in the euro area. This policy brief assesses the implications for core inflation risks using a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), a non-linear ...

Machine learning predictions are typically interpreted as the sum of contributions of predictors. Yet, each out-of-sample prediction can also be expressed as a linear combination of in-sample values of the predicted variable, with weights corresponding to pairwise proximity scores between ...

For well-informed monetary policy decisions, central banks gather a wide range of data on the state of the economy, including several inflation measures. When pursuing a forward-looking monetary policy, policymakers ideally rely on measures that indicate where inflation is heading in the medium ...