Publikationen

Österreichs Wirtschaft ist trotz mehrerer internationaler Krisen in den vergangenen Jahren resilient. Das Beschäftigungswachstum lag trotz des schwierigen Umfelds im positiven Bereich, und die geleisteten Arbeitsstunden erholten sich 2025 wieder. Zwar stieg die Inflation 2025 durch das ...

Despite the recent increase euro area headline inflation is substantially lower than at its 2022 peak. Services inflation, however, has remained comparatively elevated. Why has services inflation been so persistent, and what does this imply for monetary policy? This policy brief argues that ...

The Integrated Firm-Level Database (IFLD) combines administrative and supervisory data on Austrian firms into a unified microdata infrastructure. Its key innovation is that it links previously fragmented information on firm characteristics, financial statements, bank lending, ownership and ...

We study how monetary policy affects firm-level total factor productivity in the presence of financial frictions using a panel of Austrian non-financial firms. A dynamic firm model and causal empirical framework show that tighter monetary policy reduces productivity-enhancing investment and ...

This paper studies how households react when property prices change. Using a randomised survey experiment in Austria, it shows that lower prices raise renters’ willingness to buy and higher prices raise owners’ willingness to sell. A dynamic model for renters helps explain these ...

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon, but the ongoing 2026/27 event may warrant particular attention. Forecasts suggest it could become very strong, potentially ranking among the strongest on record. This Policy Brief assesses what such a strong El Niño could mean for global ...

How do rental markets shape inflation? In many countries, new leases follow the market, while ongoing rents rise only with inflation. Longterm tenants therefore pay less than newcomers – a “tenure discount.” This paper builds a simple model of this two-tier system and tests it ...

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about renewed inflationary pressures in the euro area. This policy brief assesses the implications for core inflation risks using a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF), a non-linear ...

Central bank press conferences are scrutinised line by line. Most research reduces each statement to a single number. We measure the tone word by word across ECB and Fed press conferences and track how it rises, turns, and settles across the statement — its „sentiment arc.“ The ...