Thomas Zörner

monetary policy
macroeconomics and macroeconometrics
credit and business cycles
theory of economic dynamics

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OeNB-Publikationen

Volkswirtschaft

16. April 2026

OeNB-Bulletin

Detecting inflation regime shifts in the euro area: the role of money growth

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This study employs an adjusted money growth indicator to identify inflation regime shifts in the euro area. A two-regime LSTAR model reveals that when adjusted M3 growth surpasses 5%, a high[1]inflation regime typically follows after about ten months. This regime is marked by persistent dynamics ...

Volkswirtschaft

15. Mai 2025

Working Paper

How Phillips Curve Dynamics Enhance Business Cycle Synchronization Analysis in Central and Eastern Europe

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This paper analyzes business cycle synchronization and the Phillips curve (PC) relationship in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies relative to the euro area. We find an overall increase in business cycle synchronicity, particularly among Euro adoption candidates, with ...

Volkswirtschaft

04. September 2024

Working Paper

The Impact of Currency Carry Trade Activity on the Transmission of Monetary Policy

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Volkswirtschaft

20. Dezember 2023

Working Paper

Hawks vs. Doves: ECB’s Monetary Policy in Light of the Fed’s Policy Stance

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Volkswirtschaft

04. Dezember 2023

Ehemalige Reihen

Monetary Policy and the Economy Q2-Q3/23

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Externe Publikationen

Böck, M. and T. Zörner. 2024. Natural gas prices, inflation expectations, and the pass-through to euro area inflation. Energy Economics 141.

Böck, M. and T. Zörner. 2023. The Impact of Credit Market Sentiment Shocks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 56(7), 1645-1673.

Ringwald, L. and T. Zörner. 2023. The money-inflation nexus revisited. Journal of Empirical Finance 73, 293–333.

Kubin, I. and T. Zörner. 2021. Credit Cycles, Human Capital and the Distribution of Income. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 183, 954–975.

Zens, G., M. Böck and T. Zörner. 2020. The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the US labor market. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 119.

Hauzenberger, N., F. Huber, M. Pfarrhofer and T. Zörner. 2020. Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Kubin, I., T. Zörner, L. Gardini and P. Commendatore. 2019. A credit cycle model with market sentiments. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 50, 159–174.

Huber, F. and T. Zörner. 2019. Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates: a Bayesian approach. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 458–473.

Hotz-Behofsits, C., F. Huber and T. Zörner. 2018. Predicting crypto-currencies using sparse non-Gaussian state space models. Journal of Forecasting, 37(6), 627–640.